Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e8…2c7b crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-8%) realized −$75 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$121
crypto 35% −$32
sports 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -33.5% -39.9% 31% 27% -26.2%
≤30d 26 -33.5% -39.9% 31% 27% -26.2%
≤90d 26 -33.5% -39.9% 31% 27% -26.2%
all 26 -33.5% -39.9% 31% 27% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 27% -26.2%
10% -45.6% 27% -33.2%
15% -50.9% 23% -39.7%
20% -55.7% 19% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage14d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$32 +118%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$26 +242%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $419 −$114 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$15 +141%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$8 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$10 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $35 +$32 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$10 +90%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $162 −$6 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $59 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $37 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $152 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $152 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $105 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $157 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.17 · official $9.17 (match) · 69 history records