Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10e8…19fc other 16 markets active 1d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+18%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% +$22
crypto 27% −$12
other 21% −$2
sports 6% +$2
tech 4% $0
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -54.3% -58.7% 0% 0% -58.0%
≤30d 4 +22.1% +10.5% 50% 50% +68.0%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% +9.0%
all 12 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 50% +9.0%
10% -18.5% 50% -1.4%
15% -26.4% 50% -10.9%
20% -33.6% 42% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 65¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $11 +$10 +89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $11 +$12 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $1 $0 +40%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 10? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.38 · official $11.38 (match) · 25 history records