Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e5…b4e9 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$102 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%51W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$152
14 days+$4
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$35
other 36% −$46
crypto 2% −$16
politics 0% −$11
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +6.8% -3.4% 47% 41% +3.8%
≤30d 140 -11.7% -20.1% 36% 34% -11.1%
≤90d 142 -12.3% -20.7% 36% 34% -11.5%
all 142 -12.3% -20.7% 36% 34% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 34% -11.5%
10% -28.3% 33% -20.0%
15% -35.2% 32% -27.7%
20% -41.5% 29% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses51 / 91
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 152
History coverage67d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden to win the second half? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+131%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Jun 15 $10 +$59 +572%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $63 +$31 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $21 +$23 +109%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $18 +$17 +95%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$6 +30%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$36 -63%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +106%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $21 +$39 +183%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots Jun 12 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$23 +442%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $24 +$26 +105%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $28 +$27 +96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 10 $20 −$2 -8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $31 −$31 -99%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $19 +$10 +49%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 12h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $5 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Cô BUY 19¢ $5 18h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 15¢ $10 18h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 21h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $5 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $94 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $63 24h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 25h
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 32¢ $10 26h
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 26h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 26h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $18 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $15 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $5 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $21 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 29h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $6 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $52.36 · 318 history records