Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e5…63c8 crypto 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$242 (-1%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate79%366W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$1
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$131
other 27% −$60
world 14% −$40
crypto 13% +$5
finance 7% −$13
culture 2% $0
politics 1% −$5
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 379 +0.8% -8.8% 96% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 461 +0.5% -9.0% 79% 2% -10.3%
all 461 +0.5% -9.0% 79% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -10.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses366 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)461 / 461
History coverage81d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 461 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1454 history records