Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

10 0x10e4…a854 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$685 (-23%) realized −$676 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%12W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$267

7 days−$345

14 days−$694

30 days−$694

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-38.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-24.9%	-32.0%	47%	47%	-25.8%
≤30d	28	-31.6%	-38.1%	43%	43%	-33.5%
≤90d	28	-31.6%	-38.1%	43%	43%	-33.5%
all	28	-31.6%	-38.1%	43%	43%	-33.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-38.1%	43%	-33.5%
10%	-44.0%	43%	-39.8%
15%	-49.4%	36%	-45.6%
20%	-54.4%	18%	-51.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -32% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -44% → late -19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$59 vs −$87 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$264

Realized−$676

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses12 / 16

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions2

Markets (closed)28 / 30

History coverage10d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	57¢	$200	$192	−$8 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	60¢	60¢	$73	$72	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$33	+32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$50	+50%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	+$161	+158%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$103	−$100	-98%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$101	+$77	+76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$46	+46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 21	$201	+$62	+31%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$103	−$101	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$104	+$46	+44%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$54	+54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 20	$101	+$37	+37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	−$101	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$39	−$38	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$101	+$91	+90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$8	+$4	+55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$74	15m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$202	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	55¢	$101	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	2d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$102	2d
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	56¢	$101	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	45¢	$103	4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	76¢	$201	4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$104	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$34	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$13	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$6	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$10	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$1	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$26	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$1	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	39¢	$8	6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	73¢	$101	7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$51	7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$100	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.13 · official $264.13 (match) · 50 history records