Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10e0…caf7 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$202 (-49%) realized −$126 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$61
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$126
crypto 35% −$140
sports 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.1% -62.1% 17% 17% -69.6%
≤30d 7 -64.1% -67.5% 14% 14% -87.9%
≤90d 7 -64.1% -67.5% 14% 14% -87.9%
all 7 -64.1% -67.5% 14% 14% -87.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 14% -87.9%
10% -70.6% 14% -89.1%
15% -73.5% 14% -90.1%
20% -76.1% 0% -91.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$34 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage13d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $146 −$140 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $77 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $77 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 53¢ $27 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 19 history records