Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x10da…98e2 sports 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$231 (-8%) realized −$234 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%108W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days−$4
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$178
crypto 9% −$65
world 3% +$5
other 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +86.3% +68.5% 100% 100% +64.6%
≤30d 59 +17.6% +6.4% 75% 64% -0.7%
≤90d 145 +1.2% -8.5% 62% 56% -9.6%
all 195 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 50% -17.9%
10% -23.3% 49% -25.7%
15% -30.7% 45% -32.9%
20% -37.5% 38% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses108 / 87
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions17
Markets (closed)195 / 212
History coverage143d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Gonzalo Villanueva 68¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $30 +$22 +71%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $9 +$9 +93%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 09 $10 +$9 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 09 $30 +$20 +65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +19%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 02 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +32%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 02 $10 +$8 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 02 $10 +$8 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $10 +$9 +93%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $30 +$13 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Zagreb: Lukas Neumayer vs Shintaro Mochizuki May 29 $10 +$1 +11%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $6 +$5 +86%
Tunis: Guy Den Ouden vs Dan Added May 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 29 $7 +$5 +73%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Mihalikov May 29 $10 +$7 +68%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions May 29 $10 +$7 +73%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 29 $10 +$9 +86%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 29 $20 +$8 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Peyton Stearns vs Daria Kasatkina May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunis: Dalibor Svrcina vs Henry Bernet May 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 68¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $9 7d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Thomas Faurel 58¢ $10 7d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Darwin Blanch 46¢ $10 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $20 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Miami Marlins 51¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $30 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 54¢ $30 13d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $30 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $40 13d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $3 18d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $10 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $10 18d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 56¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.85 · official $279.85 (match) · 394 history records