Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10d7…6f7b weather 14 markets active 8h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-57%) realized −$49 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -72.4%
≤30d 10 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -72.4%
≤90d 10 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -72.4%
all 10 -55.6% -59.8% 20% 20% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.8% 20% -72.4%
10% ← realistic here -63.6% 10% -75.1%
15% -67.2% 0% -77.5%
20% -70.4% 0% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $15 −$6 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $11 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 28 $2 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $28 −$26 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 29? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? SELL No 31¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? SELL No 86¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 74¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 38¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 38¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 37¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 50 history records