Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
10 0x10d7…4a7a other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$135 (+31%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$251
14 days+$328
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$318
sports 28% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 39% +68.4%
≤30d 38 +12.5% +1.8% 42% 42% +59.1%
≤90d 38 +12.5% +1.8% 42% 42% +59.1%
all 38 +12.5% +1.8% 42% 42% +59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 42% +59.1%
10% -7.9% 42% +43.9%
15% -16.8% 39% +30.0%
20% -25.0% 37% +17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$5 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $61 +$175 +286%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$26 +127%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$30 +149%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -50%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 −$4 -72%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$3 -51%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$5 +103%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 +$22 +430%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$3 +26%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$36 +353%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$22 +111%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $30 +$38 +127%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $236 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 24h
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $1 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 15¢ $3 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 45h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $5 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 89¢ $10 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 43¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 46h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 82¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records