Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10d6…693b other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$21
politics 31% −$16
crypto 7% −$4
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$30
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 109 -4.2% -13.4% 6% 1% -9.7%
all 123 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage116d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $263 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $290 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $254 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $277 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $263 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $221 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $272 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $272 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $282 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $283 29d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $214 29d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $214 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $298 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $298 31d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $263 31d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $263 31d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $283 31d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $283 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $221 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $221 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 376 history records