Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10d6…a6f9 world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$19
world 41% −$3
sports 11% −$6
tech 2% −$12
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 39 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 0% -10.5%
all 58 -7.3% -16.1% 43% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 5% -10.8%
10% -24.2% 5% -19.4%
15% -31.5% 3% -27.2%
20% -38.2% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage536d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $157 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $178 −$10 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $85 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $129 +$8 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $50 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $46 +$3 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $46 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $239 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $28 −$15 -54%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $37 −$13 -34%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $232 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $231 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $254 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $231 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21 Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Feb 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17? Feb 19 $4 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $41 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $44 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records