Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10d3…1e71 politics 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,455 (+1%) realized +$1,454 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 119L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$85
other 39% −$64
sports 9% +$1,642
world 6% −$56
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -3.2% -12.4% 12% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -11.4% -19.8% 8% 4% -8.8%
all 155 +0.4% -9.2% 23% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 8% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 7% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,620) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$7 · ×9.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized+$1,454
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $280 $281 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $653 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 22 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $5,291 −$7 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $5,893 −$7 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,521 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $698 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,865 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,257 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $83 +$45 +55%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $667 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $249 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $609 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,297 −$3 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $385 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,187 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $5,777 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $616 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 +$25 +44%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $610 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 20 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,437 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,684 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,082 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $999 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $4,133 −$5 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $653 11m
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $653 1h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $684 21h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $685 23h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $728 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $729 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $684 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $685 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $751 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $781 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $703 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $704 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $280 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $825 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $826 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $825 12d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $827 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $696 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $698 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $717 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $718 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.44 · official $281.44 (match) · 451 history records