Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10d2…9096
sports · 22 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$72 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$63
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 100¢ $3 $60 +$57 (+1899%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Under 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 9? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 9? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $13 +$8 +62%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$18 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$18 +258%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$10 -67%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $38 +$22 +58%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $17 +$2 +14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $4 +$2 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% +$86
other 28% −$10
weather 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 1h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 10¢ $2 18h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 10¢ $8 18h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm $6 18h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm $0 18h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm $1 18h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) SELL Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $12 18h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $0 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $3 19h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $5 19h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 40¢ $11 19h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 21¢ $6 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $4 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 40h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 42h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire $2 42h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 19¢ $5 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 44h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings SELL Phoenix Mercury 15¢ $2 44h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Chicago Sky 30¢ $7 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% +11.8%
≤30d 20 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% +11.8%
≤90d 20 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% +11.8%
all 20 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 45% +11.8%
10% -27.0% 35% +1.1%
15% -34.0% 30% -8.7%
20% -40.5% 25% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.93 · official $62.93 (match) · 67 history records