Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

10 0x10c6…0451 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$709 (+17%) realized +$821 · open −$112

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate73%16W / 6L

Drawdown74%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit11%portable

Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$168

7 days+$257

14 days+$638

30 days+$638

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+11.7%	+1.1%	65%	65%	-1.8%
≤30d	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	73%	73%	+6.5%
≤90d	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	73%	73%	+6.5%
all	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	73%	73%	+6.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.7%	73%	+6.5%
10%	+1.0%	73%	-3.7%
15%	-8.7%	73%	-13.0%
20%	-17.7%	59%	-21.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +50% → late -3% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$108 vs −$181 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$363

Realized+$821

Unrealized−$112

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses16 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)22 / 27

History coverage10d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown74%

Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	48¢	36¢	$236	$175	−$62 (-26%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$68	$67	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	24¢	$50	$64	+$14 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$50	$39	−$11 (-23%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	59¢	16¢	$71	$19	−$52 (-74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$232	+$205	+89%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$228	+$139	+61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$71	+$35	+49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$68	−$68	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$144	−$144	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$256	−$256	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$125	+$115	+92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$347	−$347	-100%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Jun 25	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$178	+$69	+39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$186	+$248	+133%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$328	+$162	+49%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$70	+$38	+54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$97	+$123	+128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$246	+$132	+54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$253	−$253	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$153	+$79	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$158	+$110	+69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$56	+$37	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$137	+$81	+59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$102	+$57	+56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$144	+$96	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$69	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$72	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$232	17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$241	17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	66¢	$71	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$228	2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$256	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$347	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$178	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$186	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$125	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$328	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$68	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$70	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$144	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$97	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$246	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$253	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$153	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$158	7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$56	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$52	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$137	9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$102	9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$144	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.29 · official $363.29 (match) · 61 history records