Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10c5…5995 crypto 205 markets active 3h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$286 (-2%) realized −$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%74W / 131L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$893
7 days−$615
14 days−$615
30 days−$1,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,231
sports 19% +$365
other 2% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 72 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 43% -18.5%
≤90d 185 -16.2% -24.2% 36% 36% -15.9%
all 205 -15.7% -23.8% 36% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 36% -15.4%
10% -31.1% 33% -23.5%
15% -37.7% 32% -30.9%
20% -43.8% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$44 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses74 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage91d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $318 +$179 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $662 −$383 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $307 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $109 +$140 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $256 −$151 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $157 −$54 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $155 +$139 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $154 +$89 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $152 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $615 +$164 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$45 -95%
Set Handicap: Bellucci (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 29 $1,587 −$78 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$26 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $93 +$57 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $92 −$45 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $601 +$92 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $235 +$97 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $249 −$80 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $74 −$50 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $151 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $100 −$59 -59%
Ruzic vs. Raducanu: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $328 −$16 -5%
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $2 $0 -7%
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $839 −$41 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$85 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$55 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $124 −$48 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$186 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$48 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$77 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $323 −$224 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$59 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $155 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $155 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $155 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $154 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $154 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $188 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $153 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $91 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $149 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $152 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $300 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 567 history records