Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10c3…0be0 crypto 683 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-1%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%630W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$25
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -5.0% -14.0% 78% 23% -10.0%
≤30d 683 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 8% -10.1%
≤90d 683 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 8% -10.1%
all 683 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 8% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses630 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 683
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $0.00 · 1447 history records