Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10c2…cf23
other · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage380d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 16¢ 21¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $14 $0 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $4 $0 +9%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $19 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 31 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 31 $4 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June? May 31 $1 −$1 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$1
world 35% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $11 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $25 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $31 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $3 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $34 26h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 29h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 34¢ $13 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $14 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 165d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 332d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 97¢ $5 350d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $14 351d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 351d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -10.3%
all 32 -1.6% -11.0% 38% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.98 · official $7.98 (match) · 95 history records