Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10bf…0d66
crypto · 27 markets active 0h ago
8.0score
+$9 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 74¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 71% +$7
crypto 28% +$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 84¢ $20 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 98¢ $30 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $20 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 82¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.8% +1.2% 77% 69% -0.4%
≤30d 26 +11.8% +1.2% 77% 69% -0.4%
≤90d 26 +11.8% +1.2% 77% 69% -0.4%
all 26 +11.8% +1.2% 77% 69% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 69% -0.4%
10% -8.5% 62% -9.9%
15% -17.3% 50% -18.6%
20% -25.4% 15% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.70 (match) · 50 history records