Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x10bd…270b sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,257 (-14%) realized −$5,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$907per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$410est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$847
7 days−$1,181
14 days−$4,075
30 days−$3,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$4,524
other 7% +$470
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.9% -24.8% 33% 33% -16.3%
≤30d 26 -29.9% -36.6% 27% 27% -24.3%
≤90d 27 -29.4% -36.2% 26% 26% -24.3%
all 39 -24.0% -31.2% 33% 33% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 33% -20.2%
10% -37.8% 31% -27.8%
15% -43.8% 31% -34.8%
20% -49.3% 26% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,400) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$658 vs −$485 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$410
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage235d
Avg bet$907
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $712 +$848 +119%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $593 +$667 +112%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $154 −$150 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $985 +$515 +52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,771 −$970 -55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $117 −$29 -25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,168 −$1,166 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,881 −$713 -38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,253 +$628 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,442 −$197 -14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,371 −$788 -58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $110 −$24 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179 −$177 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $506 +$254 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,514 +$672 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,000 −$445 -22%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $382 −$380 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,005 −$618 -62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $307 −$300 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,531 −$1,202 -78%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $610 −$384 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $713 +$925 +130%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $215 −$215 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $480 −$80 -17%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,000 +$189 +19%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $24 +$30 +125%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $500 −$409 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $1,500 +$895 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $3,000 +$1,683 +56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $1,900 −$650 -34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $500 −$270 -54%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $1,400 +$820 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $1,000 +$429 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,560 9m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $1,260 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $214 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $497 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $71 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $522 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $16 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $47 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $985 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $800 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $656 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $151 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $129 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $23 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $463 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $334 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $11 37h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $88 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $117 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 23¢ $1,019 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $74 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $800 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records