Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10bd…d00d sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-30%) realized −$93 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -38.2% -44.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
≤30d 3 -38.2% -44.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
≤90d 3 -38.2% -44.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
all 3 -38.2% -44.1% 0% 0% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 0% -40.1%
10% -49.5% 0% -45.8%
15% -54.4% 0% -51.1%
20% -58.8% 0% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$31 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 35¢ 44¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $32 −$23 -71%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $46 −$5 -11%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $198 −$65 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 35¢ $9 23m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings 19¢ $9 23m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 63¢ $32 50m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Phoenix Mercury 23¢ $32 51m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $41 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 22¢ $41 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 23¢ $46 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL New York Liberty 93¢ $46 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 75¢ $37 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 26¢ $37 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 33¢ $49 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 12¢ $49 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 27¢ $99 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 23¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.72 · official $11.72 (match) · 14 history records