Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

10 0x10bd…f9f5 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$159 (+20%) realized +$171 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate39%7W / 11L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$19

7 days+$137

14 days+$145

30 days+$145

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-4.1%	-13.3%	25%	25%	+23.6%
≤30d	13	+8.4%	-2.0%	31%	31%	+25.1%
≤90d	18	+7.1%	-3.1%	39%	28%	+12.8%
all	18	+7.1%	-3.1%	39%	28%	+12.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.1%	28%	+12.8%
10%	-12.4%	22%	+2.0%
15%	-20.8%	22%	-7.8%
20%	-28.6%	22%	-16.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +42% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$53 vs −$20 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage

Net worth$188

Realized+$171

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)39%

Wins / losses7 / 11

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage74d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Over	27¢	24¢	$100	$87	−$13 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 18	$31	−$19	-61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$24	−$24	-98%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 15	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$36	−$35	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$61	+$272	+442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$31	−$9	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 14	$47	−$47	-100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Jun 14	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$61	+$82	+134%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	+$2	+165%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Apr 09	$43	+$4	+10%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	Apr 06	$44	−$1	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Apr 06	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Apr 06	$39	+$5	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Apr 06	$94	−$4	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	27¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa?	SELL Yes	3¢	$12	17h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	8¢	$31	17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$24	3d
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	20¢	$26	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$36	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$61	5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	7¢	$6	5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	14¢	$22	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL No	100¢	$143	5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1	5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	19¢	$31	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$61	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$47	71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$47	71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$43	71d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	SELL No	48¢	$43	73d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	BUY No	49¢	$44	73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$5	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$5	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$44	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$39	74d
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	BUY No	24¢	$50	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$89	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$79	74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$5	74d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.30 · official $188.30 (match) · 111 history records