Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10bc…9212 crypto 68 markets active 6d ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,475 (+12%) realized +$1,475 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$69
14 days+$179
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$751
other 1% +$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 20% +4.6%
≤90d 5 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 20% +4.6%
all 68 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 41% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 41% +1.5%
10% -12.8% 32% -8.2%
15% -21.3% 28% -17.1%
20% -29.0% 22% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$56 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,475
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage210d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$17 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $70 +$248 +354%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $123 −$122 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $28 −$11 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $164 −$120 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $135 +$30 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $929 −$186 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $65 +$83 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? Feb 23 $308 −$39 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 23? Feb 23 $1,001 −$148 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $111 −$18 -16%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 22 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10AM ET Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $52 −$28 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $54 −$16 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $201 +$155 +77%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $564 +$75 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $602 +$129 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $379 +$188 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $112 −$64 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 05 $1,788 +$398 +22%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 04 $103 +$665 +643%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $284 −$91 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 01 $246 +$104 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $160 +$16 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $373 −$17 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $247 +$92 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 31? Dec 31 $293 −$169 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 2PM ET Dec 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 30? Dec 30 $523 +$75 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $17 +$43 +248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 23? Dec 23 $133 −$90 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 23? Dec 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 21? Dec 21 $87 +$107 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $59 −$29 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 14¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 10¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 13¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 15¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 17¢ $19 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 20¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 20¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 12¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 12¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 93¢ $276 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 94¢ $14 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 19¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 20¢ $43 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 3¢ $4 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $70 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $12 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $26 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $3 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $2 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? BUY No 17¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 668 history records