Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
10 0x10bc…0b14 crypto 1322 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$649 (-1%) realized −$651 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%890W / 750L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day79.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,991
7 days−$1,749
14 days−$1,741
30 days−$1,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$438
crypto 25% +$379
other 2% +$18
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -81.7% -83.4% 16% 2% -17.1%
≤30d 904 -37.5% -43.5% 48% 21% -13.3%
≤90d 1640 -21.5% -29.0% 54% 33% -12.4%
all 1640 -21.5% -29.0% 54% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 33% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 28% -20.7%
15% -42.0% 23% -28.4%
20% -47.7% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$651
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses890 / 750
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1640 / 1322
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ 99¢ $396 $398 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $168 24m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $77 24m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 99¢ $150 24m
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 99¢ $200 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $404 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 99¢ $88 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 100¢ $88 1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 99¢ $312 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $312 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 96¢ $84 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $85 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 96¢ $84 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 97¢ $97 1h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY Katie Volynets 96¢ $120 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Daniel Jade 100¢ $300 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 98¢ $83 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 63¢ $16 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu SELL Daniel Jade 100¢ $100 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 93¢ $23 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 99¢ $1 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 99¢ $389 2h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 99¢ $6 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 27¢ $46 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 47¢ $0 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 47¢ $15 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 47¢ $64 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 98¢ $230 3h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 97¢ $97 4h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 96¢ $8 4h
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 99¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.80 · official $397.80 (match) · 3500 history records