Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

10 0x10bb…800e other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$3 (+11%) realized +$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-1.0%	-10.4%	71%	57%	-0.4%
≤30d	7	-1.0%	-10.4%	71%	57%	-0.4%
≤90d	7	-1.0%	-10.4%	71%	57%	-0.4%
all	7	-1.0%	-10.4%	71%	57%	-0.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.4%	57%	-0.4%
10%	-19.0%	43%	-9.9%
15%	-26.8%	29%	-18.6%
20%	-34.0%	14%	-26.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$2

Realized+$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage7d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	92¢	92¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	$0	+5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$9	+$2	+19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$6	+$2	+32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$2	+$2	+95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$2	+$1	+42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 09	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 09	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$2	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$7	24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2	24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	79¢	$4	27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$2	27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$2	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	65¢	$2	6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	80¢	$2	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$2	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 15 history records