Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x10bb…4091 crypto 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$19 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%99W / 56L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$202
14 days−$202
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$267
sports 7% +$585
economics 3% −$921
other 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 54% -10.2%
≤30d 151 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 54% -10.2%
≤90d 151 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 54% -10.2%
all 155 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 55% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 55% -11.4%
10% -11.8% 46% -19.9%
15% -20.4% 30% -27.6%
20% -28.2% 17% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$73 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses99 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage578d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 55¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $205 −$41 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $152 −$36 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$45 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $154 −$15 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $512 −$82 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $204 −$62 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$76 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $308 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $305 −$91 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $153 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $356 −$56 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $128 +$77 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $227 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$37 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $407 −$21 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $809 −$114 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.65 · official $110.65 (match) · 555 history records