Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ba…10b8 other 127 markets active 3h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,776 (-2%) realized −$2,044 · open −$732
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%35W / 70L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,020per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$7,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days−$539
14 days−$484
30 days−$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 51% −$667
other 29% −$1,678
politics 8% −$287
sports 7% −$394
tech 3% +$30
world 2% −$30
crypto 1% +$16
culture 0% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.7% -20.1% 21% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 39 -12.9% -21.2% 28% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 67 -13.3% -21.5% 28% 3% -12.1%
all 105 -12.0% -20.4% 33% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 4% -11.5%
10% -28.0% 2% -20.0%
15% -34.9% 2% -27.7%
20% -41.3% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$890) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$67 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$7,882
Realized−$2,044
Unrealized−$732
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses35 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions21
Markets (closed)105 / 127
History coverage594d
Avg bet$1,020
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $1,590 $1,558 −$32 (-2%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 87¢ $1,430 $1,441 +$11 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $1,435 $1,305 −$129 (-9%)
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 71¢ $753 $783 +$30 (+4%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 72¢ 70¢ $450 $442 −$8 (-2%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 62¢ 62¢ $396 $397 +$2 (+0%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $344 $340 −$4 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $324 $295 −$29 (-9%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $179 $183 +$5 (+3%)
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 51¢ $321 $180 −$141 (-44%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 83¢ 88¢ $159 $167 +$9 (+5%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $217 $165 −$52 (-24%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+1%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 51¢ 50¢ $139 $137 −$1 (-1%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No 40¢ 25¢ $204 $128 −$76 (-37%)
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 77¢ 78¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 56¢ 62¢ $83 $92 +$9 (+11%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $62 $20 −$43 (-68%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $230 $10 −$220 (-96%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-92%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $1,932 −$153 -8%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 21 $1,285 +$8 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 20 $3,223 −$100 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $380 −$20 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,788 −$160 -9%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 19 $77 −$1 -1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $362 +$19 +5%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Jun 17 $236 −$16 -7%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $1,129 −$40 -4%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 16 $196 −$54 -27%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $379 −$14 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $315 −$6 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $3,199 +$11 +0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 15 $56 −$15 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $922 +$58 +6%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,279 +$105 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $695 −$53 -8%
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 11 $797 −$43 -5%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 10 $1,571 +$1 +0%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 07 $1,342 +$4 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 07 $2,769 −$78 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $642 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $553 −$18 -3%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$6 -19%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 02 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $415 −$26 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $116 −$116 -100%
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 31 $562 −$20 -4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $121 −$4 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? May 30 $155 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? May 29 $228 +$2 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 27 $72 −$72 -100%
Databricks IPO before 2027? May 27 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? May 26 $21 −$2 -11%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $35 −$6 -18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $138 −$5 -4%
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 25 $32 −$13 -43%
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 May 23 $976 −$318 -33%
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $19 −$13 -67%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 22 $350 −$23 -6%
Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 19 $41 +$3 +8%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 18 $3,472 −$363 -10%
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 18 $120 +$1 +1%
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 15 $237 −$1 -0%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference? May 09 $1 $0 -44%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $97 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $143 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 5h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 19¢ $182 12h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $308 12h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 15¢ $146 12h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 46¢ $192 13h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 22h
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 40¢ $212 26h
Discord IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $182 36h
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 36h
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 62¢ $351 36h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $130 36h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 45h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 46h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $361 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $35 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 45¢ $45 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 2d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $94 2d
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 43¢ $76 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $78 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 42¢ $240 3d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $231 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $432 4d
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $77 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $104 4d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,882.04 · official $7,873.60 (match) · 969 history records