Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10b7…643c crypto 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,218 (+13%) realized +$1,218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%56W / 95L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$126
14 days−$319
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$191
other 20% −$790
culture 4% +$2,008
sports 2% −$17
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.7% -27.4% 33% 22% -18.1%
≤30d 15 -37.8% -43.7% 27% 20% -25.1%
≤90d 63 -9.0% -17.7% 21% 16% -29.9%
all 151 +15.8% +4.8% 37% 28% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 28% +2.9%
10% -5.3% 21% -6.9%
15% -14.4% 17% -15.9%
20% -22.8% 13% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$32 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses56 / 95
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage145d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $127 −$125 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $82 +$306 +373%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $257 −$227 -88%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $272 +$75 +28%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $403 +$41 +10%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $185 −$183 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $161 +$28 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$11 -7%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 28 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 25 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $25 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $50 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 04 $50 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 03 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 03 $85 −$52 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 03 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 03 $70 −$51 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 03 $60 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 03 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 03 $48 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 03 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 03 $40 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 03 $79 −$23 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 03 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 03 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 03 $70 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $388 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 31¢ $122 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $347 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $443 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $11 9d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $7 9d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $19 9d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $36 9d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $25 9d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $87 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $189 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $161 10d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $44 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 975 history records