Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

10 0x10b5…091d other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$32 (+14%) realized +$31 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown17%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+1.1%	-8.6%	75%	50%	+5.2%
≤30d	4	+1.1%	-8.6%	75%	50%	+5.2%
≤90d	4	+1.1%	-8.6%	75%	50%	+5.2%
all	4	+1.1%	-8.6%	75%	50%	+5.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	50%	+5.2%
10%	-17.3%	50%	-4.9%
15%	-25.3%	50%	-14.1%
20%	-32.6%	25%	-22.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 78% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.9 per $1 lost it wins $6.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized+$31

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown17%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	34¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$110	+$2	+2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$61	+$28	+46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	+$6	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	32¢	$31	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$112	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$110	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$61	10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $41.43 (match) · 10 history records