Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
10 0x10b4…9fbe crypto 13 markets active 4d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-49%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$50
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 62% −$58
crypto 26% +$6
other 10% +$4
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -11.5% -19.9% 67% 67% -74.0%
≤30d 11 +21.3% +9.8% 82% 82% -56.5%
≤90d 11 +21.3% +9.8% 82% 82% -56.5%
all 13 +20.9% +9.3% 77% 77% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 77% -55.1%
10% -1.1% 54% -59.4%
15% -10.7% 46% -63.3%
20% -19.4% 31% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage121d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2 $0 +15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records