Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10b2…4ceb
politics · 611 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,756 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,510 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,145
Realized+$1,510
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses117 / 271
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions280
Markets (closed)388 / 611
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day238.7
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 280 History 388 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$325
7 days+$557
14 days+$1,510
30 days+$1,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 13¢ 38¢ $100 $297 +$197 (+197%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 45¢ $177 $279 +$102 (+58%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 21¢ 44¢ $100 $211 +$111 (+111%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 23¢ 84¢ $57 $209 +$152 (+267%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 19¢ 39¢ $100 $206 +$106 (+106%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 23¢ 42¢ $100 $187 +$87 (+87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 54¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $47 $173 +$126 (+271%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $125 $151 +$27 (+21%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $116 $147 +$31 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 63¢ $100 $143 +$43 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $150 $137 −$13 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $150 $133 −$17 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 42¢ 52¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $150 $117 −$33 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 18¢ $107 $115 +$8 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $114 +$7 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $9 −$5 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $28 +$8 +28%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $18 −$4 -22%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +116%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$6 -28%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $123 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $64 +$8 +12%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +71%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $24 −$7 -30%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$31 -91%
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +147%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $103 +$2 +2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +47%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $13 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +143%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $121 −$96 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$16 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $0 $0 -22%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $35 +$126 +355%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $46 +$207 +452%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$329 +9428%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 27% +$531
politics 23% +$761
other 21% −$136
sports 15% −$318
tech 7% −$19
finance 2% −$30
crypto 2% +$352
economics 2% −$10
weather 1% +$335
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY No 4¢ $3 7m
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY No 4¢ $0 8m
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY No 33¢ $14 9m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 10¢ $1 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 10¢ $1 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 13¢ $11 10m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 13¢ $14 11m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 14m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 15¢ $0 15m
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 20¢ $1 15m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 16m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 13¢ $6 17m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 19m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 15¢ $1 22m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $6 27m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 28m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $4 31m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31m
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL No 45¢ $1 32m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 7¢ $4 32m
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 18¢ $2 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $11 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $8 55m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $7 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 +13.2% +2.4% 29% 27% -4.3%
≤30d 388 +11.4% +0.8% 30% 28% +6.4%
≤90d 388 +11.4% +0.8% 30% 28% +6.4%
all 388 +11.4% +0.8% 30% 28% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover238.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 28% +6.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 26% -3.8%
15% -17.7% 24% -13.1%
20% -25.7% 23% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,144.58 · official $8,143.24 (match) · 3500 history records