Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x10af…ce1d other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 31L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$3
other 23% +$3
politics 11% $0
culture 6% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% +$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 +0.6% -8.9% 39% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 0% -9.0%
all 58 +2.4% -7.4% 47% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 3% -8.6%
10% -16.2% 3% -17.3%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.3%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.61 per $1 lost it wins $12.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage393d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $14 +$1 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $21 $0 +1%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $9 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $8 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 -2%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 06 $9 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jun 04 $7 $0 +4%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Israel military action against Iran before June? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $43 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $42 3h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $5 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $22 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $34 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $38 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records