Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10af…3a6b crypto 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%430W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day124.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 447 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 447 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 447 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -10.1%
all 447 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses430 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)447 / 449
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day124.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$18 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $126 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $76 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $17 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.34 · official $188.60 · 910 history records