Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x10af…9786 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-21%) realized −$73 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$5
other 46% +$29
crypto 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.8% -34.7% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 5 -27.8% -34.7% 40% 40% -2.2%
≤90d 5 -27.8% -34.7% 40% 40% -2.2%
all 5 -27.8% -34.7% 40% 40% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 40% -2.2%
10% -40.9% 40% -11.6%
15% -46.6% 40% -20.1%
20% -51.9% 40% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$23 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 Jun 26 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$36 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $9 −$8 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.76 · official $142.76 · 13 history records