Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ae…df49 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,773 (-37%) realized −$3,780 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 37% 37% -47.6%
≤30d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 37% 37% -47.6%
≤90d 19 -23.1% -30.4% 37% 37% -47.6%
all 19 -23.1% -30.4% 37% 37% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 37% -47.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.0% 32% -52.6%
15% -43.1% 26% -57.2%
20% -48.7% 26% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$525 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,162
Realized−$3,780
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage5d
Avg bet$489
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 31¢ 31¢ $1,131 $1,138 +$7 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 33¢ 34¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $455 −$445 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $398 −$390 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $816 −$812 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,074 +$590 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $360 +$110 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1,257 −$1,248 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,024 −$1,017 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $203 +$413 +204%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $148 +$16 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $411 +$449 +109%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $264 +$194 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $264 +$735 +279%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $407 −$399 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $412 −$412 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $487 −$480 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $376 −$371 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $415 −$410 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $100 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $115 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $364 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $208 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $369 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 33¢ $25 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $99 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $250 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $148 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 27¢ $302 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $53 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 46¢ $201 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $59 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $84 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $248 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $6 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $97 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 66¢ $111 40h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,664 41h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $5 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $481 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $470 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $360 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $81 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $412 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $95 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $0 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $3 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.49 · official $1,162.49 (match) · 120 history records