trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $31 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 48¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+52%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $19 | −$4 | -22% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $33 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 10 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 04 | $89 | −$2 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $38 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $2 | $0 | -26% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $35 | −$1 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $47 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $38 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $7 | −$1 | -18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 21 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | May 14 | $577 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 25 | $12 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $34 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 20 | $147 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Apr 19 | $240 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 18 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Apr 17 | $222 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 17 | $33 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Apr 01 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State | Mar 04 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 33% | 0% | -11.0% |
| ≤30d | 18 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 28% | 6% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 27 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 22% | 4% | -10.3% |
| all | 28 | -10.0% | -18.5% | 21% | 4% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.5% | 4% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -26.3% | 0% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -33.4% | 0% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -40.0% | 0% | -34.3% |