Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10a9…75b0
weather · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$132 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$138 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage64d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$47
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+122%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 +$18 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$12 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $14 +$16 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$20 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $12 +$18 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $13 +$17 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 02 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 −$10 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$5 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$19 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 25? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $21 +$27 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $13 −$6 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 21? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 24? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 20? May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 23? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$145
politics 13% +$45
sports 4% −$26
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -36.5% -42.6% 21% 21% -22.5%
≤30d 56 -41.2% -46.8% 23% 20% -19.0%
≤90d 82 -37.9% -43.9% 28% 24% -22.3%
all 82 -37.9% -43.9% 28% 24% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 24% -22.3%
10% -49.2% 20% -29.7%
15% -54.1% 18% -36.5%
20% -58.6% 15% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.11 · official $11.11 (match) · 281 history records