Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10a7…00b1 crypto 894 markets active 3d ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$363 (-4%) realized −$357 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%418W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$300
14 days−$358
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -21.4% -28.9% 36% 25% -20.0%
≤30d 571 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 41% -14.4%
≤90d 890 -0.4% -9.8% 47% 39% -14.7%
all 890 -0.4% -9.8% 47% 39% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 39% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -22.8%
15% -26.4% 31% -30.3%
20% -33.6% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$357
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses418 / 472
Open positions4
Markets (closed)890 / 894
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 82¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.26 · official $4.10 · 3500 history records