Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10a1…c3be
sports · 586 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$441 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$443 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses229 / 344
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions13
Markets (closed)573 / 586
History coverage66d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 13 History 573 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$12
14 days−$16
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 91¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 89¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 90¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 90¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? No 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5) 1. FSV Mainz 05 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $5 −$1 -19%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -7%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 04 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -11%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 -10%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$334
other 20% −$81
world 12% −$12
crypto 4% +$6
politics 3% −$16
finance 2% −$6
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on SELL No 79¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $5 7h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 91¢ $5 15h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 95¢ $5 16h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 95¢ $5 17h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 18h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 91¢ $5 25h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 25h
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on BUY No 89¢ $5 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $5 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $5 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 90¢ $5 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $5 35h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 36h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 96¢ $5 39h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 39h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 30¢ $7 42h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $7 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 8% -16.4%
≤30d 108 -1.7% -11.0% 62% 10% -10.4%
≤90d 573 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 27% -15.7%
all 573 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 27% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 27% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 20% -23.7%
15% -31.7% 17% -31.1%
20% -38.4% 13% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.81 · official $70.72 (match) · 1498 history records