Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x109c…fc75 crypto 106 markets active 19h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%74W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$59
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -8.4% -17.1% 71% 48% -15.1%
≤30d 106 -7.3% -16.1% 70% 46% -15.2%
≤90d 106 -7.3% -16.1% 70% 46% -15.2%
all 106 -7.3% -16.1% 70% 46% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -15.2%
10% -24.1% 18% -23.3%
15% -31.5% 11% -30.7%
20% -38.2% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses74 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records