Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x109b…935f sports 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,757 (+2%) realized +$1,791 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%190W / 131L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$923est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$726
14 days+$1,097
30 days+$2,365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$3,534
other 2% −$2,225
crypto 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -33.7% -40.0% 41% 41% -15.3%
≤30d 127 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 57% -4.6%
≤90d 321 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 58% -8.4%
all 321 -1.9% -11.3% 59% 58% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 58% -8.4%
10% -19.8% 52% -17.2%
15% -27.5% 42% -25.2%
20% -34.6% 30% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$184 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$3,766
Realized+$1,791
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses190 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$923
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage76d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $3,800 $3,766 −$34 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,723 +$1,079 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,109 +$646 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,012 −$2,000 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $152 −$10 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $504 +$163 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $193 −$190 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$76 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $228 +$179 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $455 +$248 +55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $153 −$70 -46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $502 +$86 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $228 −$225 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $504 +$163 +32%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $302 +$86 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $303 +$145 +48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $252 −$250 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $377 +$127 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$76 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$69 +90%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $304 +$188 +62%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $76 +$102 +134%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $604 +$181 +30%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $151 +$68 +45%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $76 +$111 +146%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $152 +$98 +64%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $152 +$74 +49%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $152 +$112 +73%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $76 +$65 +86%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $152 +$81 +53%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $76 +$45 +60%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $77 −$75 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $76 −$75 -98%
Game Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $753 +$104 +14%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $143 −$141 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $97 −$96 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $353 +$154 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $758 +$379 +50%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $76 +$63 +83%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $404 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $3,817 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2,723 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2,109 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $152 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $152 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $142 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $152 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $504 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 51¢ $193 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $76 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $76 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $76 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $101 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 70¢ $151 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $76 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $455 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 18¢ $83 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $153 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $228 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 85¢ $502 5d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $76 6d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 55¢ $76 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $504 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $302 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 67¢ $151 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 67¢ $151 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $252 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,765.57 · official $3,765.57 (match) · 688 history records