Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

10 0x1098…a2fe other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,734 (+19%) realized +$3,145 · open −$411

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%11W / 9L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$624per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$62est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$741

7 days+$3,775

14 days+$2,426

30 days+$2,426

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+38.8%	+25.6%	56%	56%	+23.8%
≤30d	20	+33.0%	+20.3%	55%	55%	+7.1%
≤90d	20	+33.0%	+20.3%	55%	55%	+7.1%
all	20	+33.0%	+20.3%	55%	55%	+7.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.3%	55%	+7.1%
10%	+8.8%	55%	-3.1%
15%	-1.7%	50%	-12.5%
20%	-11.4%	50%	-21.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$976) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -6% → late +72% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$813 vs −$725 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.37 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$575

Realized+$3,145

Unrealized−$411

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses11 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Est. fees paid−$62

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage10d

Avg bet$624

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	59¢	52¢	$392	$342	−$50 (-13%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	57¢	22¢	$500	$189	−$311 (-62%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals	Yes	17¢	8¢	$94	$44	−$50 (-53%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$1,499	−$1,460	-97%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	Jun 28	$498	+$939	+189%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	Jun 28	$58	−$57	-98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 28	$619	+$1,319	+213%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$678	+$2,270	+335%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$558	−$540	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$2	+$1	+51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$498	+$1,226	+246%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1,009	−$976	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$554	+$455	+82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$554	−$536	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$508	+$513	+101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$666	−$654	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$433	+$647	+149%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$250	−$242	-97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$1,384	+$483	+35%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	−$96	-96%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$499	+$484	+97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$996	+$610	+61%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,001	−$1,959	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	59¢	$397	1h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$96	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$506	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	46¢	$1,499	9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India	BUY India	23¢	$58	33h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY Ireland	34¢	$498	35h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$619	47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,947	2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	22¢	$678	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	25¢	$558	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	100¢	$3	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	94¢	$1,724	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	26¢	$498	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$2	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1,009	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	52¢	$1,009	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$554	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$554	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	11¢	$50	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$49	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$87	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	49¢	$508	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	46¢	$471	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	29¢	$250	5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$433	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	91¢	$1,867	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	90¢	$304	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	49¢	$200	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$220	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.09 · official $575.09 (match) · 47 history records