trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +122.2% | +101.1% | 100% | 100% | +101.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +122.2% | +101.1% | 100% | 100% | +101.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +21.7% | +10.1% | 50% | 50% | -21.3% |
| all | 26 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 46% | 38% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.2% | 38% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -13.4% | 31% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -21.8% | 27% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -29.4% | 23% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $31 | $31 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 56¢ | 43¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 47¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 35¢ | 23¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-34%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 21 | $18 | +$21 | +122% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | May 14 | $54 | −$33 | -62% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | May 14 | $3 | +$2 | +75% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | May 07 | $61 | −$7 | -11% |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 18 | $12 | +$11 | +92% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Feb 11 | $12 | +$6 | +46% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 31 | $11 | +$8 | +68% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 31 | $3 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 17 | $11 | +$7 | +70% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 17 | $1,020 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 10 | $1,022 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 15-21? | Dec 19 | $500 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Dec 19 | $504 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Nov 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 22 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Nov 10 | $1 | +$1 | +88% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 10 | $17 | −$15 | -87% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 05 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? | Nov 05 | $605 | −$60 | -10% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $1,722 | −$5 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 03 | $288 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 03 | $696 | −$1 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Nov 03 | $2,166 | −$2 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | Oct 23 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings? | Oct 04 | $1 | $0 | +22% |