Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
10 0x1094…34d3 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% $0
sports 32% +$6
other 28% +$9
world 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.6% -23.6% 67% 67% +8.1%
≤30d 3 -15.6% -23.6% 67% 67% +8.1%
≤90d 3 -15.6% -23.6% 67% 67% +8.1%
all 3 -15.6% -23.6% 67% 67% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 67% +8.1%
10% -30.9% 33% -2.3%
15% -37.6% 0% -11.7%
20% -43.7% 0% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.08 per $1 lost it wins $5.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $26 +$9 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.55 · official $43.55 (match) · 8 history records