Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
10 0x1091…56e7 crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate85%61W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$20
other 8% −$21
sports 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +8.6% -1.8% 85% 38% -8.2%
≤30d 72 +8.6% -1.8% 85% 38% -8.2%
≤90d 72 +8.6% -1.8% 85% 38% -8.2%
all 72 +8.6% -1.8% 85% 38% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 38% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 29% -17.0%
15% -19.7% 15% -25.0%
20% -27.6% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses61 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 151 history records