Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
10 0x108d…b85d sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,090 (+3%) realized +$15,317 · open +$773
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 50L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,497per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1,081est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$35,432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,110
7 days+$1,736
14 days+$2,071
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$15,519
other 5% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 42% -1.1%
≤30d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 48% -8.9%
≤90d 32 +8.8% -1.6% 53% 53% +1.8%
all 103 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 51% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 51% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 50% -15.5%
15% -25.5% 49% -23.7%
20% -32.8% 49% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$4,140) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,178 vs −$4,135 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$35,432
Realized+$15,317
Unrealized+$773
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,081
Open positions6
Markets (closed)103 / 109
History coverage190d
Avg bet$4,497
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $19,022 $20,170 +$1,148 (+6%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals No 74¢ 80¢ $4,931 $5,333 +$402 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $3,700 $3,675 −$25 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $3,220 $3,185 −$35 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 27¢ 26¢ $3,240 $3,060 −$180 (-6%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots No 33¢ $546 $9 −$537 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,131 −$1,110 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 13 $353 −$345 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $4,140 +$3,860 +93%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $2,440 −$2,402 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $3,980 −$3,920 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $357 −$351 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,241 −$1,237 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $393 −$385 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $322 +$263 +82%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $431 +$370 +86%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $3,209 +$5,679 +177%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $820 +$1,315 +160%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $3,165 +$2,835 +90%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $3,202 −$3,150 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 09 $3,105 +$2,895 +93%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 04 $1,309 −$1,304 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $1,857 −$1,855 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $1,279 +$914 +72%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $3,224 −$3,200 -99%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 22 $2,391 +$768 +32%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $3,023 +$2,905 +96%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 21 $1,101 −$1,093 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $290 +$369 +127%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 21 $386 +$328 +85%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 21 $329 +$408 +124%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen May 20 $2,825 −$2,800 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $2,290 −$2,278 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $3,045 +$2,955 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 19 $2,135 −$79 -4%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 18 $6,881 +$6,150 +89%
LoL: Solary vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 24 $3,080 +$892 +29%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - Prime Apr 23 $380 +$576 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 07 $1,960 +$3,040 +155%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Feb 27 $12 $0 -3%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech v Feb 14 $8,400 +$6,600 +79%
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Bellarmine Knights: O/U 152.5 Feb 07 $581 +$505 +87%
Chicago State Cougars vs. New Haven Chargers: O/U 127.5 Feb 07 $9,293 −$9,293 -100%
Spread: Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (-5.5) Feb 07 $2,813 −$2,813 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 119.5 Feb 07 $2,771 +$2,662 +96%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5 Feb 07 $5,100 +$4,900 +96%
Radford Highlanders vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers Jan 29 $16,318 −$16,318 -100%
New Orleans Privateers vs. Nicholls Colonels Jan 27 $22,807 −$22,807 -100%
Morgan State Bears vs. Howard Bison: O/U 148.5 Jan 27 $14,109 +$13,012 +92%
Nicholls Colonels vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions: O/U 141.5 Jan 24 $7,150 −$7,150 -100%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. North Florida Ospreys: O/U 166.5 Jan 22 $512 −$512 -100%
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. North Florida Ospreys: O/U 167.5 Jan 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Army Black Knights vs. Bucknell Bison: O/U 144.5 Jan 22 $20,897 +$19,078 +91%
Spread: North Alabama Lions (-2.5) Jan 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-12.5) Jan 17 $36,822 −$36,821 -100%
Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Lafayette Leopards: O/U 138.5 Jan 17 $17,346 −$17,346 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $3,949 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $224 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $8 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $29 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $9 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $11 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $186 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $510 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY No 33¢ $556 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $1,131 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $3,272 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $3,729 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $3,311 25h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 23¢ $353 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 51¢ $4,140 4d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 48¢ $2,440 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $3,980 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 38¢ $18 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 38¢ $336 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner BUY Forsaken 38¢ $3 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $1 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $2 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $35 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $40 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $128 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner BUY Forsaken 39¢ $128 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,432.01 · official $35,432.01 (match) · 1181 history records