Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x108a…8159 weather 825 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,891 (+22%) realized +$1,170 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%242W / 571L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,169
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -16.6% -24.6% 26% 22% -14.3%
≤30d 120 -16.6% -24.6% 26% 22% -14.3%
≤90d 789 -2.5% -11.8% 30% 26% +2.9%
all 813 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 26% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 26% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 23% -7.3%
15% -28.1% 20% -16.2%
20% -35.1% 17% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,170
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses242 / 571
Open positions12
Markets (closed)813 / 825
History coverage128d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $31 $46 +$15 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 21¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 −$8 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 −$10 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +131%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$90 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +430%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$29 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$8 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $18 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.21 · official $103.32 (match) · 3500 history records