Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1086…27d2 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,282 (+20%) realized +$2,820 · open −$538
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$833per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$844
other 31% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -29.6%
≤30d 3 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -29.6%
≤90d 3 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -29.6%
all 3 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.4% 0% -29.6%
10% -56.9% 0% -36.4%
15% ← realistic here -61.1% 0% -42.5%
20% -64.9% 0% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$115 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4,509
Realized+$2,820
Unrealized−$538
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)3 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1,040 $1,320 +$280 (+27%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1,364 $1,200 −$164 (-12%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $949 $912 −$36 (-4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $620 $660 +$40 (+7%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $676 $126 −$550 (-81%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $85 $93 +$8 (+9%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $167 $90 −$78 (-46%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $25 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+31%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $845 −$269 -32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 21 $700 −$72 -10%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10m
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 11m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $47 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $101 2d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,508.73 · official $4,508.73 (match) · 218 history records