Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

10 0x1081…98fb crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$53 (+24%) realized +$53 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day35.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-7.2%	-16.0%	47%	40%	+24.9%
≤30d	15	-7.2%	-16.0%	47%	40%	+24.9%
≤90d	15	-7.2%	-16.0%	47%	40%	+24.9%
all	15	-7.2%	-16.0%	47%	40%	+24.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.0%	40%	+24.9%
10% ← realistic here	-24.1%	40%	+13.0%
15%	-31.4%	40%	+2.0%
20%	-38.1%	33%	-8.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$53

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day35.0

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$24	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 16	$32	−$5	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 16	$31	−$4	-14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 15	$32	+$46	+142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 15	$12	−$11	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 15	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$9	+163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 15	$16	+$27	+168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$11	−$10	-94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$7	+73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	SELL Down	35¢	$44	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	SELL Up	35¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$24	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$54	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$27	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$1	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$11	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$11	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$6	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$14	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$27	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	49¢	$11	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	32¢	$4	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.71 · official $4.71 (match) · 35 history records