Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1081…7d90 crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,281 (-15%) realized −$2,280 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%55W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,060
7 days+$2,060
14 days+$2,060
30 days+$2,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$1,699
other 34% +$1,727
sports 26% −$2,586
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.8% +8.4% 25% 25% +23.3%
≤30d 24 +19.8% +8.4% 25% 25% +23.3%
≤90d 122 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 41% -24.7%
all 122 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 41% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 41% -24.7%
10% -19.2% 35% -31.9%
15% -27.0% 29% -38.5%
20% -34.1% 23% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$95 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$2,280
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses55 / 67
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage50d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4,922 +$1,805 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $201 −$76 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$59 -53%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $60 +$389 +650%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $1,009 −$750 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 11 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 11 $496 +$276 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 11 $380 −$373 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 11 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 11 $16 +$55 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 11 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 11 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 11 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 11 $123 +$33 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 11 $238 −$61 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 11 $317 +$124 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 11 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 11 $103 −$92 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 56¢ $10 51m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 38¢ $10 52m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 45¢ $10 52m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $5 52m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $10 52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 23¢ $4 52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 27¢ $5 52m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 29¢ $5 53m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $9 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $10 53m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 49¢ $10 53m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 38¢ $9 54m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $152 56m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $504 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $6,051 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4,408 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 89¢ $100 16h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 52¢ $125 16h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $201 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 39¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $10 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 57¢ $10 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $5 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $5 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $10 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.66 · official $148.66 (match) · 343 history records