Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1081…583c world 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$5
other 31% −$1
culture 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.9%
all 9 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 0% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $365 −$6 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 $0 +4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $7 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $17 $0 -1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $175 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $154 31m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $16 33m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 34m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 34m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 34m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $14 35m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 35m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 50m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $152 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $154 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $47 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $55 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $17 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $20 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $49 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $52 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.46 · official $97.40 (match) · 81 history records